ASX jumps as traders cut bets on November rate rise as big banks pass on RBA decision — as it happened

The big four banks have all confirmed they will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, following the RBA's decision to raise the official cash rate.

The ASX has jumped as money markets are now betting the Reserve Bank will likely keep rates on hold at its next meeting in early November.

Inflation jumped to 4 per cent in the year to August, driven by higher fuel prices and up from 3.5 per cent the previous month.

The Australian dollar fell below 70 US cents, its weakest level in two months, after the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates to a 15-year high on Tuesday.

Look back on how the trading day unfolded on our blog.

Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.

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Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:29pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:29pm

Market snapshot

By Yiying Li

• ASX 200: +0.9% to 8,789 points
• Australian dollar: -0.1% at 69.76 US cents
• Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.3%), S&P 500 (-0.2%)
• Asia: Nikkei (+2.2%), Hang Seng (+0.3%), Kospi (-0.2%)
• Europe: FTSE (-0.5%)
• Spot gold: flat to $US4,181/ounce
• Oil (Brent futures): +0.1% at $US102.66/barrel
• Iron ore: +0.1% to $US96.96.65/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.5% at $US83,159
• 10-year bonds: US 5.24%, Australia 5.35%

Prices current at around 4:29pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

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Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:40pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:40pm

That's it for today

By Yiying Li

We'll end our markets live coverage here and thank you for staying with us.

You can always catch The Business on ABC News at 8:44pm, after the late news on ABC TV, and any time on ABC iview.

Our team will be back on deck tomorrow morning with all the latest.

Until then, take care and enjoy your evening!

Key Event

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:34pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:34pm

Here we go ... ANZ joins club to raise home loan rates

By Yiying Li

ANZ has just dropped its announcement to increase interest rates by 0.25% per annum for its variable rate home loan customers, effective from October 9.

The bank said it continued to review other interest rates.

According to the bank, a 0.25% pa increase to variable home loan rates will increase monthly repayments by about $79 on a $500,000 variable home loan for an owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments.

All big four banks have confirmed they will pass on the RBA's rate hike in full to mortgage borrowers by lifting variable home loan reference rates from the same day (and it's a Friday).

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Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:19pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:19pm

Westpac becomes latest big four to lift home loan rates

By Yiying Li

Westpac has become the latest big four bank announcing it will increase variable interest rates by 0.25% per annum for its home loan and deposit customers from October 9.

The bank said its Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest would also increase by 0.25% to 5.25%.

Westpac chief executive of consumer Carolyn McCann said the ongoing tightening cycle continued to place pressure on household budgets.

"We recognise that another rate increase will add to cost-of-living pressures for many households," Ms McCann said."Our priority is supporting customers through this period and helping them stay on top of their finances."At the same time, higher interest rates on deposit accounts will be welcome news for customers looking to grow their savings."

Key Event

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:01pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 5:01pm

NAB joins CommBank to increase home loan rates

By Yiying Li

NAB has joined CommBank to increase its variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% per annum from October 9.

NAB group executive personal banking, Ana Marinkovic, has encouraged customers concerned about their finances to reach out early.

"Many homeowners will be looking at what today's decision means for their household budget and monthly repayments," Ms Marinkovic said."Some customers may be concerned about the impact of higher repayments, particularly as household budgets remain under pressure."

NAB is the second of the big four to pass on the RBA's rate hike in full to mortgage borrowers.

Macquarie Bank announced yesterday it would raise its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% per annum from October 15.

Key Event

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:55pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:55pm

Australian market closes up

By Yiying Li

The Australian share market has finished the day higher, up 0.9% at 8,789 points.

Over the last five days, the index has gained 0.3% and is virtually unchanged year to date.

Overall, the market had 144 stocks gaining, 3 unchanged and 53 in the red.

All 11 sectors ended higher along with the ASX 200.

Consumer Discretionary led the pack, up 2.6%, followed by Telecommunications Services, up 2.3%, and then Industrials, up 1.6%.

Among companies, the top mover was LendLease Group, up 11.3%, followed by Karoon Energy and Charter Hall Group, up 9% and 6.4%, respectively.

It wasn't a good day for Develop Global Limited, down 10%, followed by Deep Yellow, down 5.3%, and then Pinnacle Investment Management Group, down 4.9%.

The Australian dollar is down 0.2% at 69.70 US cents.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:47pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:47pm

Treasurer says slowing public demand growth is fraction of the economy

By Michael Janda

At a press conference today, Treasurer Jim Chalmers was asked whether the Commonwealth government could do more to curb inflation and take pressure off the RBA to raise rates further.

Specifically, the reporter asked whether the treasurer was open to measures like a temporary rise in tax rates or the super guarantee to take demand out of the economy, and whether Treasury had looked at these types of options.

"We're not attracted to those two specific suggestions that you put in your question," the treasurer responded."Not something that we have been considering or discussing at our end."

Instead, Mr Chalmers said that the government was trying to limit its contribution to inflation by reducing public demand growth.

"If you look at demand over the past 12 months or so, for every $5 of demand in our economy, $4 is private demand and $1 is public demand."And if you look at the final budget outcome on Monday, you see that public final demand growth came in actually lower than was even anticipated in the May budget."So public demand growth is slowing. It is a fraction of private demand in our economy."

Key Event

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:34pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:34pm

Breaking: CommBank lifts home loan rates from October 9

By Yiying Li

Commonwealth Bank has just confirmed it will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% per annum, following the RBA's decision to raise the official cash rate.

All CBA home loan variable rate changes announced today will be effective October 9, 2026, according to the bank.

CBA's group executive retail banking, Angus Sullivan, said the RBA’s decision comes amid persistent inflation and continued global uncertainty, both contributing to broader economic pressures.

"Each customer's circumstances are different, and our teams are ready to provide support, help them understand their options and consider what might work best for their situation," Mr Sullivan said.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:22pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:22pm

RBA unlikely to lift rates in November after lower-than-expected inflation figures

By Yiying Li

Headline inflation jumped to 4% in August, from 3.5% in July, driven by higher housing costs and automotive fuel prices.

But underlying inflation remained at 3.6% for the third month in a row.

Some economists think another rate rise is likely, though money markets predict only a 20% chance of a November hike.

You can read more in my colleague Gareth Hutchens' coverage.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:10pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 4:10pm

Market services inflation worries CBA economists

By Michael Janda

A note on the monthly Consumer Price Index from one of the big bank economics teams.

Trent Saunders, a former RBA and Queensland Treasury economist, notes that the increase in prices for market services remains stubbornly high, indicating ongoing domestic price pressures.

"Market services inflation increased by 0.4%/mth in August, with the annual rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%," he writes."The result suggests that market services inflation was a bit stickier than we had expected, with more of July's start‑of‑financial‑year step‑up in services prices persisting into August."Within the detail, restaurant meals slowed to around 0.3%/mth after rising 1.2% in July. Takeaway meals also slowed to 0.2% in the month, while hairdressing slowed from 0.6% in July to 0.4%."The slowdown in these categories was partly offset by a pick‑up in price growth in motor vehicle maintenance, insurance, and veterinary services."Overall, the market services detail was mixed in August but continues to point to an aggregate inflation rate that will make it difficult for the RBA to hit its target in a timely manner."

Given that, Saunders thinks there is a substantial risk of a follow-up rate rise in November, even though it's not CBA's 'base case'.

"The RBA's November Board meeting remains live given the ongoing strength in underlying inflation, but yesterday's press conference suggests the hurdle for another rate increase is now higher," he explains."Governor Bullock emphasised the need to assess the broader flow of data and appeared to push back against the idea that a single strong inflation outcome would necessarily be sufficient to prompt another increase."For now, we continue to expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged in November. However, the decision remains finely balanced and will depend on the context of the meeting, including the outcomes for the Q3 2026 CPI, labour market conditions, household spending and developments in the conflict in Iran."

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:57pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:57pm

Millennials worse off than their parents for first time in history, Greens-led report finds

By Yiying Li

For the first time in history, younger generations are worse off than their parents, a Greens-led senate inquiry into intergenerational housing inequity has found.

The committee has published its final report today after spending six months hearing evidence from across the country about Australia’s growing housing divide.

The report noted that over the past 30 years, housing in Australia has become a vehicle for private wealth accumulation.

Meanwhile, the report said the big winners of the housing crisis—banks, the real estate industry, big developers, and multiple property investors—have seen their profits and wealth grow exponentially.

Addressing the issue, the Senate Inquiry’s Chair, Senator Barbara Pocock, has urged the federal government to introduce national rent caps, expand public housing to at least 10% of Australia’s housing stock over the next decade, and require the big banks to provide low-interest mortgages to first home buyers.

"This Senate inquiry revealed a housing system stacked against younger generations who have lost the intergenerational housing lottery," Ms Pocock said."Millennials are the first Australian generation to be worse off than their parents. "Young people have been ripped off, locked out of the growing housing divide, forced into insecure housing and as a result are delaying major life decisions."

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Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:35pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:35pm

Why is AI causing inflation?

By Yiying Li

Jamie: Big fan of the blog. Just wondering if you could touch on why AI is causing inflation? Is it because data centres are using more power? Is it because consumers are being forced to compete with them for services? Thanks

Hello Jamie,

Thanks for reading our blog and for the great question!

Building data centres requires huge amounts of spending on construction, electrical infrastructure and skilled labour, as well as imported equipment such as advanced chips and servers.

As the data centre boom increases demand for workers and resources in an already stretched construction sector, it means those resources could, relatively speaking, become more expensive and add to inflationary pressures elsewhere in the economy.

You can find more coverage from my colleague Lin Lin here.

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Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:25pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:25pm

ASX extends early gains with all sectors up

By Yiying Li

The ASX 200 is gaining 93.40 points, or 1.1%, to 8,802 after a low of 8,696 earlier.

All Ordinaries index is also up 1.1% to 8,983 points.

All 11 sectors are higher today, along with the ASX 200, led by Consumer Discretionary, which is up 2.9%.

Among major miners, Rio Tinto and BHP are gaining almost 1% each, while Mineral Resources and Fortescue are adding more than 1%, respectively.

Oil stocks are mostly higher, with Woodside Energy up almost 1%, Santos adding more than 1%, Beach Energy gaining more than 3%, and Origin Energy edging up 0.4%.

In the tech space, Afterpay owner Block is gaining almost 2%, WiseTech Global is edging up 0.4% and Zip is adding more than 1%, while Xero is losing almost 1% and Appen is declining almost 2%.

Among the big four banks, Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and NAB are edging up 0.1 to 0.4% each. ANZ is edging down 0.1%.

Among gold miners, Genesis Minerals and Evolution Mining are adding more than 1% each, while Newmont and Resolute Mining are edging up 0.2 to 0.4% each.

Northern Star Resources is surging almost 7% after reports that South Africa's Gold Field was considering sweetening its offer for the company.

Reporing with Reuters

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:15pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:15pm

AUSTRAC begins issuing infringement notices to non-enrolled businesses

By Yiying Li

AUSTRAC has begun issuing infringement notices after identifying businesses that failed to enrol with the authority under the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws.

The authority said it issued infringement notices to businesses in the real estate, accounting, and jewellery sectors that it believes failed to enrol within 28 days of providing a designated service.

The notices were issued at $21,840 for corporate entities and $4,368 for individuals, but can accrue daily, AUSTRAC said.

CEO Brendan Thomas said most reporting entities were taking their new obligations seriously.

"We initially looked at a group of businesses where we had concerns about enrolment, and of these, around 90% have now enrolled or attempted to enrol,” Mr Thomas said."The small number that continue to ignore their obligations should not expect AUSTRAC to ignore them."We are actively looking for businesses that haven’t enrolled and we will issue more infringement notices where necessary."Enrolment is a simple first step, and there is no excuse for failing to take it."

The laws expanded from this July to include businesses in sectors such as real estate, legal services, accounting, conveyancing, trust and company services, and dealing in precious stones and metals.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:00pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 3:00pm

ANZ expects another rate hike in November

By Yiying Li

The ANZ Research team says, in its view, another rate hike at the November meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, is more likely than not.

"Trimmed mean inflation came in slightly lower than expected in August, printing at 0.2% m/m (0.24% to two decimal places)," the team says."However, when we examine the detail of the release and the likely outcomes for September, the August CPI is consistent with our existing forecast for Q3 trimmed mean inflation to come in at 1% q/q."The risks around that forecast are balanced."We’d view such a quarterly number as being a material upside surprise relative to the forecasts in the RBA’s August Statement on Monetary Policy."

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:53pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:53pm

🎧: Inflation still too high for the RBA

By Yiying Li

Fresh inflation figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics give us a look under the hood of an economy running hot.

So just what is keeping inflation higher than the RBA would like?

How does this fresh data affect the odds of a further rate hike in November?

In the latest episode of ABC Business Daily, Carrington Clarke and Paul Bloxham, HSBC’s chief economist for Australia, New Zealand, and global commodities, break it all down.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:43pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:43pm

EVs outsold petrol and diesel cars for first time

By Yiying Li

An electric car is sold every 100 seconds in Australia, but the country still has a long way to go to decarbonise its transport sector, according to the Electric Vehicle Council.

The 10th anniversary edition of the annual State of Electric Vehicles Report shows how EVs have become mainstream within a decade, making up one in four new cars sold.

Sales have more than doubled within a year, and last month EVs outsold petrol and diesel cars for the first time.

ABC climate reporter Nathan Morris has more.

Key Event

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:39pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:39pm

Market snapshot

By Yiying Li

• ASX 200: +1.1% to 8,801 points
• Australian dollar: -0.2% at 69.67 US cents
• Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.3%), S&P 500 (-0.2%)
• Asia: Nikkei (+2%), Hang Seng (flat), Kospi (flat)
• Europe: FTSE (-0.5%)
• Spot gold: flat to $US4,182/ounce
• Oil (Brent futures): +0.5% at $US103.08/barrel
• Iron ore: +0.1% to $US96.96.65/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.3% at $US83,346
• 10-year bonds: US 5.24%, Australia 5.38%

Prices current at around 2:39pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

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Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:28pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:28pm

Total dwelling approvals fall 6.1pc in August, new ABS data shows

By Yiying Li

The total number of dwellings approved fell 6.1% in August to 16,953, according to seasonally adjusted data the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released today.

ABS head of construction statistics Daniel Rossi said approvals for private dwellings excluding houses fell 21.2% in August, after a 0.8% rise in July.

Conversely, he said, private sector house approvals rose 3.7% to 10,885 dwellings in August — 18.4% higher than a year ago — following a 1.9% fall in the previous month.

"This marked the eighth month in a row with more than 10,000 private sector houses approved across Australia," Mr Rossi said.

According to the ABS, South Australia recorded the largest rise in private sector house approvals, up 27.7% from 12.8% in July. Western Australia rose 8.6%, after a 1.8% July rise.

Meanwhile, New South Wales had the only fall in private sector house approvals, down 4.5%.

Wed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:12pmWed 30 Sep 2026 at 2:12pm

'December rate hike becomes more likely': analyst

By Yiying Li

As my colleague David Chau mentioned earlier, underlying inflation remaining steady at 3.6% has led markets to downgrade their bets on a November interest rate hike to around 20%.

However, the RBA board is due to have one more meeting on December 7–8 before 2026 ends.

VanEck’s head of investments and capital markets, Russel Chesler, says a December rate hike is increasingly likely to occur given today’s CPI results.

"This month’s CPI doesn’t take into account the September spike in oil prices, where Brent crude reached levels of $US109 a barrel, the highest since May when the Australian government was subsidising fuel excise duty," he says."Although oil price volatility does not directly contribute to the trimmed mean number, which is the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, it will increase the trimmed mean indirectly, by feeding into the costs of food, manufacturing and logistics."Employment numbers are still strong."The minimum wage increase of 6% and the award wage increase of 4.75% may well filter into increases received by higher-income earners during the year, which we are yet to see."

Mr Chesler said he didn't believe the RBA’s one increase yesterday would be sufficient to bring inflation under control.