World
In US, Jaishankar warns of ‘major food crisis’ in coming months amid Ukraine, Iran conflicts
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar warned that disruptions to grain shipments and fertiliser supplies could trigger a major food crisis in the coming months.
FULL ARTICLE · The Indian Express World
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned of a “major food crisis” in the coming months amid fertiliser shortages and disruptions to grain shipments caused by the Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts. He also said the combined impact of energy, food, fertiliser and financial pressures is proving “very very stressful” for Global South economies.
Speaking at a conversation hosted by the Asia Society in New York Monday, Jaishankar said the Ukraine war and the Iran-Gulf conflict had had a “devastating impact” on Global South economies, news agency PTI reported.
“… this is a big concern for us, which is, if you look at these two conflicts, the Ukraine and now the Iran-Gulf conflict, they’ve actually had a devastating impact on Global South economies,” he said.
Jaishankar said there was particular concern over the energy situation as the “market is very tight”. He also warned that political decisions affecting oil supplies could further complicate the situation and drive up prices at a time when countries should be trying to stabilise them.
“So part of it is actually the security of oil supplies, and part of it is the politics of oil supplies, and they are feeding into each other, and they are creating a double crisis or an aggravated crisis,” he said.
Food security · Explainer
Are global food markets already under pressure?
Independent indicators behind the warnings of a coming food crisis, and what it would mean for the Global South.
Warning lightsWho is exposedWhat is a food crisis?The time lagCostly fertiliser
The world’s food-price warning lights
FAO indicators released September 4, 2026
- 133.3 FAO Food Price Index, August 2026 Highest since November 2022
- +1.9% Rise from July; up 2.5% on a year earlier Monthly jump
- Cereals Cereal price index up 2.2% Highest since May 2024
- Sugar +11.9% Biggest monthly mover Highest since June 2025
- Vegetable oils Prices edged up again Highest since June 2022
- 2.98 bn t World cereal production forecast for 2026 2% below 2025
Still below the 2022 record
March 2022 record
August 2026: 133.3
The index is about 17% below its all-time peak. Even so, 2026’s cereal harvest would still be the second-largest on record.
Which economies are most exposed to global supply shocks?
Common exposure channels by region
Latin AmericaAfricaMiddle EastSouth AsiaSoutheast Asia
Food imports
Fertiliser imports
Energy imports
Limited financial buffers
- Latin America Food importsFertiliser importsEnergy importsLimited financial buffers
- Africa Food importsFertiliser importsEnergy importsLimited financial buffers
- Middle East Food importsFertiliser importsEnergy importsLimited financial buffers
- South Asia Food importsFertiliser importsEnergy importsLimited financial buffers
- Southeast Asia Food importsFertiliser importsEnergy importsLimited financial buffers
Import dependence + higher costs + limited fiscal space can amplify external shocks.
Indicative, based on FAO and UNCTAD assessments; not a ranking of countries. UNCTAD notes many developing economies face high debt, rising borrowing costs and limited fiscal space. It singles out Sudan, Tanzania and Somalia as dependent on Gulf fertiliser.
What is a food crisis?
Food security rests on more than one pillar
- AVAILABILITY Is enough food physically available? Harvests, stocks and imports.
- ACCESS Can countries and households afford it? Prices, incomes and a country’s ability to pay for imports.
- STABILITY Can supplies and prices remain predictable? Shocks from wars, weather or trade disruption.
Food security ≠ just food productionA country can grow plenty and still face a food crisis if people cannot afford food, or supplies swing wildly.
FAO also counts a fourth pillar, utilisation: whether people can make good use of food, which depends on nutrition, clean water and health.
From fertiliser shortage to lower harvests: the time lag
Why a crisis can arrive “in the coming months”, not overnight
“Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.”FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu
- Supply disruption Shipping and trade routes hit
- Fertiliser scarce or costly Prices jump, cargoes delayed
- Farmers apply less Or miss the window entirely
- Planting and yields hit Weaker crops in the field
- Harvest, months later The damage shows up here
- Food supply tightens Prices feel the pressure
ShockWeeksPlantingMonths later
FAO warned in May 2026 that the effects could reach harvests in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
What happens when fertiliser gets expensive?
The farmer-level chain
- Higher fertiliser price Input bills climb
- Farmer cuts fertiliser use Less applied per hectare
- Lower yield, or a different crop Some switch to cheaper crops or plant less land
- Less surplus to sell Smaller harvests reach markets
- Costlier food production Pressure passes on to food prices
UNCTAD: higher fertiliser costs influence planting decisions, including crop choice and total area planted, and also affect input use and yields.
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), agencies. Map: Natural Earth.
Jaishankar warns of food, fertiliser shortages
Turning to the global food situation, Jaishankar said some major grain exporters may not be able to send out shipments, particularly through the Black Sea. “We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea,” he said.
He also said the world was facing significant fertiliser shortages because key producers were in West Asia and Russia and their production had been affected.
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Jaishankar said the situation could worsen when combined with climate patterns such as a super El Niño. “There is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months,” he said.
He said the pressures were not limited to food and fertiliser supplies, with energy and finance also adding to the strain.
“So if you have energy as a big crunch, and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance because every time there’s a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very very stressful,” he said.
‘Countries should not be so self-centred’
Jaishankar said policymakers could not dismiss the wider consequences of their decisions by arguing that economic hardship elsewhere was unintended.
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“Countries should not be so self-centred that you’re in your own world and take your decision and say, ‘Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult’.”
He said “sound common sense” should ensure that the basic needs of countries were not neglected to the point of putting them in distress.
“And that is a concern that we have,” he said.
Jaishankar warns of instability
Jaishankar also warned that the energy crisis could contribute to political instability. “We have already seen it after the Ukraine war. We saw in our neighbourhood the direct result of that in political instability, and my fear is what is happening in Iran and the Gulf is going to feed, is going to aggravate,” he said.
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He said some countries would continue to maintain their independence and autonomy despite the pressure created by global conflicts, while others could find it more difficult.
“Some others would find it harder to do so. So those of us who are autonomous, we’d like to see more of us who are autonomous. But it’s not a black and white scenario. It would depend on the issue and the stakes involved. There’ll be cases where countries would make adjustments. There’ll be cases where they would fight back,” he said.
(With inputs from PTI)
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