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United Kingdom faces fresh unity challenge as Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland leaders join forces
The agreement came about 48 hours after US President Donald Trump weighed in on the politically sensitive issue of Irish reunification, saying he would “love to see” a united Ireland during a visit to
FULL ARTICLE · The Indian Express World
5 min readUpdated: Sep 15, 2026 06:31 PM IST
From left, First Minister of Scotland John Swinney, First Minister of Wales Rhun ap Iorwerth, Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald and First Minister of Northern Ireland Michelle O'Neill, during a meeting to discuss the "pursuit of a different attitude" from the UK Government and the future of independence for their respective countries, in Cardiff, Wales, Monday, Sept. 14, 2026. (AP)
The leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday signed an agreement calling on the UK government to prepare for constitutional change, in a move that could intensify questions over the future of the United Kingdom.
The first ministers of the three devolved nations said their futures were tied to Europe and urged Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government to recognise their right to determine their own constitutional arrangements, the Associated Press reported.
It is the first time the leaders of all three nations have come from either pro-independence parties, in the case of Scotland and Wales, or a pro-unification party, in Northern Ireland, which remains part of the UK more than a century after the rest of Ireland gained independence.
🚨 NEW: The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland say the future of their nations “belongs in the European Union” as they call for independence from the UK pic.twitter.com/oFPZJVE5ig — Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) September 14, 2026
“For people watching across these islands — for people watching around the world — there could be no clearer sign that Westminster’s time is coming to an end,” the leaders said in a memorandum of understanding, referring to the UK Parliament.
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United Kingdom · Explainer
Three nations. One union.
The leaders of the parties governing Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a joint memorandum in Cardiff on Monday, calling on Westminster to prepare for constitutional change. They are not all asking for the same thing.
Express InfoGenie map
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are governed by parties seeking constitutional change; England and the UK parliament at Westminster are shown in gold.
What each nation is asking for
Scotland
Wants a second independence referendum
→→→
Wales
Wants the power to call one, not a vote yet
→→→
Northern Ireland
Wants a border poll on Irish reunification
→→→
Westminster
Every one of the three routes runs through the UK government, which has said no to all of them for now.
Read this first
The four signed as party leaders, not as heads of government. Michelle O’Neill is Northern Ireland’s first minister but signed for Sinn Féin. The memorandum carries no legal force, names no referendum dates and sets no timetable.
The key distinction
Three nations, three different demands
Scotland
Independence, and a second referendum
First Minister
John Swinney
Party
Scottish National Party
Last vote
2014 — 55% No, 45% Yes
Position
Actively pressing Westminster for another referendum
Wales
The power to decide, not a vote yet
First Minister
Rhun ap Iorwerth
Party
Plaid Cymru
Last vote
None ever held
Position
Not pursuing an independence referendum for now; wants Wales to hold the power to call one
Northern Ireland
Not independence — Irish reunification
First Minister
Michelle O’Neill
Party
Sinn Féin, of which she is vice-president
Route
A border poll under the Good Friday Agreement
Position
Seeking a united Ireland, not a separate state
What happened
Monday, September 14, Cardiff Bay
Four signatures, not three
John Swinney for the SNP, Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru, and for Sinn Féin both vice-president Michelle O’Neill and president Mary Lou McDonald, who travelled from Dublin.
A memorandum of understanding
It asserts each nation’s right to determine its own future by democratic means, and calls on the UK government to prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change in each jurisdiction. It commits the parties to co-operate on the economy, energy and international matters including the European Union, and says Brexit has damaged their economies.
“Momentum is behind our movements,” the memorandum says.
Then a second, separate deal
Swinney and ap Iorwerth held another press conference that afternoon, without Sinn Féin, to sign a distinct Scotland–Wales co-operation agreement between their two governments, seeking further powers and funding from Westminster. Two documents, two different capacities.
The legal reality
Can they simply leave?
Scotland
Not on its own authority
The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster’s consent.
Wales
No mechanism exists
There is no equivalent constitutional route for Wales to call an independence referendum on its own authority, and no vote has ever been held.
Northern Ireland
A defined legal route
The Good Friday Agreement provides for a border poll, which the UK government is obliged to call if it appears likely that a majority would vote for a united Ireland. The judgement of when that point is reached rests with the Northern Ireland secretary.
The pact itself
What it does, and what it cannot
What it does
Binds three nationalist parties into a common position
Asserts a right to self-determination
Commits them to co-operate on economy, energy and Europe
Puts coordinated public pressure on Downing Street
What it does not
Trigger any referendum, or name a date for one
Carry legal force of any kind
Give Scotland or Wales power to call a vote themselves
Bring about Irish reunification
The other side
How Westminster and unionists answered
Downing Street
Prime Minister Andy Burnham believes strongly in the union and wants to focus on the cost of living rather than constitutional debates and referendums, his office said. Burnham had told the Commons a Scottish vote could follow a clear consensus north of the border, but a letter to Swinney then put the question off the agenda until the next general election, saying the government sees no such consensus.
The DUP
Emma Little-Pengelly, Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister, said O’Neill had not sought her agreement or permission to travel, attend or sign anything as first minister, and accused her of weaponising the office. The two share a mandatory coalition in which neither can act for the executive alone.
Context
Why this is happening now
May 2026 elections
The first time all three devolved nations have been led simultaneously by parties committed to constitutional change. Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Senedd, ending Labour’s unbroken run in Welsh government since devolution in 1999.
Brexit
All three parties argue leaving the EU damaged their economies, and the memorandum commits them to work with European partners. Scotland and Northern Ireland both voted Remain in 2016.
Trump in Dublin
Two days before the Cardiff meeting, the US president said during a visit to Dublin that he would love to see Ireland united. O’Neill said his remarks showed the debate was very much alive.
Where opinion sits
Polling cited around the meeting put support at roughly 47% in Scotland, 36% in Northern Ireland and 32% in Wales. Figures vary considerably between pollsters and question wordings, so treat them as indicative.
A developing political story. Quotations are drawn from the published memorandum and from reporting of Monday’s press conferences. Polling figures are indicative and vary by pollster.
Sources: The Irish Times; RTÉ; Brussels Signal; IBTimes UK; Press Association; the memorandum as published by Sinn Féin.
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A challenge to Westminster
The agreement came about 48 hours after US President Donald Trump weighed in on the politically sensitive issue of Irish reunification, saying he would “love to see” a united Ireland during a visit to his golf course hosting the Irish Open.
Burnham’s spokesperson dismissed the prospect of the pact posing an immediate threat to the union. He said the prime minister remained strongly committed to the United Kingdom and was more concerned with reducing the cost of living than constitutional debates.
Nicola McEwen, director of the University of Glasgow Centre for Public Policy, said the summit was symbolically significant but had no legal force, Associated Press reported.
Push for referendums
The UK introduced devolution in the late 1990s, giving Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland varying degrees of legislative and policy-making powers through their own governments and parliaments. Westminster, however, retained authority over national matters and issues relating to England.
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Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney and Northern Ireland’s First Minister Michelle O’Neill called for independence and unification referendums respectively. Welsh leader Rhun ap Iorwerth did not set out a timetable for an independence vote.
The three leaders attended the meeting in their political capacities rather than their official ones, possibly because O’Neill heads a power-sharing administration with the Democratic Unionist Party.
Northern Ireland Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP accused O’Neill, a member of Sinn Fein, of “weaponising” the office of first minister by signing the agreement.
Scotland’s independence push
Scotland held an independence referendum in 2014, with voters rejecting separation from the UK by 55 per cent to 45 per cent. But support for independence has grown since the Brexit vote, according to McEwen.
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Swinney, who leads the Scottish National Party, said he believed Scots would vote for independence if Westminster allowed another referendum.
Burnham told Parliament last week that he would permit a vote if there was a “clear consensus” in Scotland. He later wrote to Swinney saying another referendum was “off limits”.
Northern Ireland faces a different constitutional process. Under the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement, which ended three decades of sectarian conflict known as the Troubles, the UK government is required to hold a referendum on Irish unification if evidence suggests a majority would support it.
The British government has said that threshold has not been met. Any move towards unification would also require approval in a referendum in the Republic of Ireland.
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What the pact could mean
Burnham has made devolution a major theme since taking office less than two months ago, although his focus has largely been on regional governments within England, reflecting his previous role as mayor of Greater Manchester.
Swinney sought to turn that approach to his advantage, arguing that Burnham’s emphasis on devolution should logically extend to recognising Scotland’s right to decide its own future.
McEwen said the more immediate significance of the agreement may lie in the three governments working together more regularly rather than in any immediate threat to the UK’s territorial integrity.
Closer cooperation, she said, could give the devolved governments greater influence in negotiations with Westminster.
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“It does keep on the agenda that question about, well, if the United Kingdom is a union based on consent, what is the pathway where it looks like that consent may no longer be there?” McEwen said. “Any UK government has been very reluctant to engage in that discussion.”
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