Amid changing dynamics in the Middle East, Turkey seeks to emerge as a leader

Turkey's attempts at expanding its Middle East footprint has put it in a position of power, coming head-to-head with Israel.

Transcript

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

Power dynamics in the Middle East are shifting. That's because of the wars in Gaza and Iran and Washington signaling a desire to decrease its footprint in the region. And as that happens, one country, in particular, is making a play for greater influence. With its growing defense industry, its role as a mediator in multiple wars and its cultural soft power, Turkey wants to cement itself as the leader of a new Middle East order. NPR's Hadeel Al-Shalchi reports from Istanbul.

HADEEL AL-SHALCHI, BYLINE: On August 7, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sat side by side at wooden desks in Mecca to sign a historic pact, the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. It combines Saudi's oil wealth, Pakistan's nuclear capabilities and Turkey's expanding defense industry. It features NATO Article 5-style language that an attack on one country is an attack on all and a promise to share defense intelligence.

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PRESIDENT RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN: (Non-English language spoken).

AL-SHALCHI: According to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the pact also sends a message to the region.

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ERDOGAN: (Non-English language spoken).

AL-SHALCHI: "The step we took was for these three countries to come together and, God willing, send a signal to the Islamic world," he said this month at a youth conference.

As the main driver of the pact, one of those signals could be that Turkey wants the region to know it's positioning itself as the leader here. For nearly half a millennium, the Ottoman Empire controlled much of the region from Istanbul before collapsing after World War I. Asli Aydintasbas is director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution. She says some in Erdogan's government today believe they have a responsibility to restore order to the nation states that replaced the empire.

ASLI AYDINTASBAS: There is a sense of a manifest destiny among Turkey's current ruling elite that Turkey's destined to be the region's heavyweight.

AL-SHALCHI: Turkey also understands that the region is entering a post-U.S. phase after the war with Iran and the drawdown of U.S. military presence, and that's convenient for Turkey, says Aydintasbas.

AYDINTASBAS: Without a clear U.S. win, gradually, U.S. influence in the region will decline, and Turkey will be there to step in.

AL-SHALCHI: But Turkey's economic woes, including high inflation and a weak currency, undermines its ambitions she says.

AYDINTASBAS: That doesn't make Turkey a militarily or strategically weak country. But Ankara understands that it's been unable to translate its growing influence into a Turkish-led order beyond its immediate periphery.

AL-SHALCHI: Its other major challenge might come from an increasingly aggressive Israel, which, after the attacks of October 7, 2023, has tried to keep its neighbors militarily weak, Aydintasbas says. That includes Iran, long a dominant player across the region that's been seriously weakened by the U.S.-Israeli war. Aydintasbas says Syria has emerged as the laboratory for Turkey's growing influence. Following the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024, Turkey secured multibillion-dollar contracts for post-war Syrian reconstruction and is rebuilding its army. That cuts across Israel's own strategy for the neighborhood, according to Aydintasbas.

AYDINTASBAS: Keeping their neighbors militarily suppressed, giving Israel freedom of action and making sure that no power rises in the region enough to present a challenge to Israel.

AL-SHALCHI: That means a decentralized and fragmented Syria, the southern part of which Israel now controls and shows no signs of ceding. Eldad Ben Aharon is a senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt and an expert on Turkey-Israeli relations.

ELDAD BEN AHARON: In the past, we didn't see Israel and Turkey competing in terms of regional aspirations or trying to protect or expand their spheres of influence.

AL-SHALCHI: In early August, Israel launched an airstrike targeting a defunct airbase in northern Syria. Israel said it was to preempt the deployment of Turkish forces. Turkey denied the move, and U.S. officials called the strikes a, quote, "unnecessary escalation." At this year's U.N. General Assembly, Erdogan blasted Israel for its actions in the war in Gaza.

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ERDOGAN: (Non-English language spoken).

AL-SHALCHI: "Before us stands a genocidal mindset that can never get enough of killing," he said, prompting the Israeli delegation to walk out. Israel denies allegations of genocide.

Israeli politicians, fueled in part by campaigning for upcoming national elections, have cautioned about Turkey's growing power, like former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in February.

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NAFTALI BENNETT: And from here, I warn, Turkey is the new Iran.

AL-SHALCHI: Ben Aharon says it's possible that Israel and Turkey could see a future conflict.

BEN AHARON: Israel and Turkey now increasingly view each other through a zero-sum lens.

AL-SHALCHI: But Turkey has had a long-standing, if frosty, relationship with Israel. In September 2023, the country's two leaders shook hands in New York. Aydintasbas says the U.S., a strong ally of both countries, could help rebuild that relationship.

AYDINTASBAS: The Trump administration needs to come up with a diplomatic process to de-escalate initially, and later on, build a reasonable relationship between Turkey and Israel.

AL-SHALCHI: However, she says, President Trump's volatile decision-making makes any long-term planning challenging.

Hadeel Al-Shalchi, NPR News, Istanbul.

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