Federal Public Debt remains stable in August and reaches R$ 9.29 trillion

The Federal Public Debt (DPF) was stable in August and ended the month at R$ 9.293 trillion, up just 0.04%. The figure was released this Monday (28) by the National Treasury. In July, the indicator stood at R$ 9.289 trillion.

The increase occurred even though the Treasury redeemed R$ 84.43 billion more in securities than it issued. That is because the incorporation of R$ 88.39 billion in interest more than offset the effect of the redemptions and kept the debt stock rising.

Through the incorporation of interest, the Treasury recognizes, month by month, the interest that accrues on the public debt. The Treasury's forecast is that the DPF will end 2026 between R$ 9.7 trillion and R$ 10.3 trillion.

Domestic debt

Most of the debt is concentrated in the domestic market.

The Internal Federal Public Market Debt (DPMFi) fell 0.05% in August and ended the month at R$ 8.944 trillion.

Meanwhile, External Federal Public Debt (DPFe) rose 2.41%, to R$ 348.26 billion, of which:

• R$ 299.70 billion correspond to marketable debt;
• R$ 48.56 billion relate to contractual debt (such as foreign loans).

Selic gains ground

One of the highlights of the report was the increase in the share of securities linked to the Selic rate.

The share of these securities rose from 51.11% in July to 52.74% in August, the highest level in the historical series, according to the Treasury.

The composition of the debt was as follows:

• 52.74% in floating-rate securities (Selic);
• 23.22% in inflation-indexed securities;
• 20.31% in fixed-rate securities;
• 3.74% in foreign-currency securities.

The 2026 Annual Funding Plan (PAF) foresees a share between 49% and 53% for securities linked to the Selic rate. The estimate was revised upward last month.

Maturity increases

The average maturity of the debt also improved in August. The indicator rose from 4.05 years to 4.10 years.

At the same time, the share of debt maturing within up to 12 months fell from 18.91% to 16.39%.

The 12-month accumulated average cost rose from 12.45% per year in July to 12.59% per year in August.

Reserve declines

The National Treasury's liquidity reserve, known as the debt cushion, fell 11.89% in nominal terms during August.

The volume rose from R$ 1.37 trillion in July to R$ 1.208 trillion in the following month.

Despite the reduction, the Treasury said the current level is sufficient to cover approximately 7.18 months of debt maturities.

The reserve brings together resources intended exclusively for debt repayment and cash balances from the issuance of securities.

Foreign investors advance

The share of foreign investors in the stock of domestic debt also increased. The share rose from 9.82% in July to 9.91% in August.

In nominal terms, the stock of securities held by nonresident investors in the country rose from R$ 879.07 billion to R$ 886.3 billion.

Financial institutions remain the main holders of the securities, with 31.22% of the stock.

Next come:

• Investment funds: 22.52%;
• Pension: 22.63%;
• Insurers: 3.34%.

Why is the debt growing?

Public debt can increase even when the government redeems more bonds than it issues.

That was what happened in August: the Treasury carried out a net redemption of R$ 84.43 billion, but the interest incorporated into the stock reached R$ 88.39 billion.

In practice, the interest added to the debt balance exceeded the effect of the reduction caused by the redemptions.

The Treasury also said that the international scenario remains marked by volatility, while the composition of the debt has reflected the environment of high interest rates and uncertainties.

Forecast

The Treasury maintains its forecast for 2026 that the Federal Public Debt will end the year between R$ 9.7 trillion and R$ 10.3 trillion.

According to the agency, the expectation is to gradually reduce the share of floating-rate securities if the country once again records primary surpluses in a structural way.

Through public debt, the government borrows resources from investors to meet obligations. In return, it undertakes to repay the money with some correction, which may be pre-fixed (set in advance) or follow the Selic rate, inflation and exchange rates.